Is ROY voting flawed?
Written by Rex Jaybels   
Wednesday, 18 November 2009 10:19

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Chris Deluca writes in the Sun-Times yesterday that there is an inherent flaw in the Major League's ROY voting system. That flaw? Letting the writers vote instead of the players. Deluca writes,

"Red flags should be raised when the Sporting News -- in a players poll -- voted Beckham the AL Rookie of the Year last month. Around that same time, Beckham's peers in the players association selected him as the top AL rookie."

The winner was Andrew Bailey of the Oakland Athletics, and Deluca has no issue with that. What he takes issue with is Gordon Beckham's fifth place finish,

"...they flubbed by giving Beckham zero first-place votes and two second-place votes."

2009 AL roy voting
Player 1st 2nd 3rd Points
Andrew Bailey Oak
13 6 5 88
Elvis Andrus TEX
8 6 7 65
Rick Porcello DET
7 8 5 64
Jeff Niemann TB
x 5 6 21
Gordon Beckham CHW
x 2 4 10
Brett Anderson OAK
x 1 1

Keith Law of ESPN writes today regarding Deluca's comments,

"Rookies of the Year were named Monday, and we get some hometown whining from Chicago (about Gordon Beckham) and Philly (about J.A. Happ). The Chicago writer, Chris Deluca, argues that the players should vote on the award instead of writers who don't take it seriously (a conclusion he draws from the fact that they didn't choose his local guy), even though a look at any year's All-Star reserve selections would tell you that players aren't going to do any better of a job at this than the writers would."

I'm not sure if I agree with Law's assessment that Deluca was "whining" because they didn't pick Gordon. He readily admits that the correct pick was made. His issue comes with the zero first place votes that Beckham received.

"Bailey also opened the season on the A's roster, but he worked his way into the closer's role. The right-hander started out in the stress-free world of middle relief. He clearly had the most impressive rookie season, actually getting stronger after being the A's lone representative at the All-Star Game."

2009  Comparison
Player G GS CG SO W L S BS K BB H IP ERA WHIP
Anderson 30 30 1 1 11 11 0 0 150 45 180 175.1 4.06 1.28
Bailey 68 0 0 0 6 3 26 4 91 24 49 83.1 1.84 0.88
Niemann 31 30 2 2 13 6 0 0 125 59 185 180.2 3.94 1.35
Porcello 31 31 0 0 14 9 0 0 89 52 176 170.2 3.96 1.34

2009 Comparison
Player G AB R H DBL TPL HR RBI SB CS BB K AVG OBP SLG
Andrus 145 480 72 128 17 8 6 40 33 6 40 77 0.267 0.329 0.373
Beckham 103 378 58 102 28 1 14 63 7 4 41 65 0.270 0.347 0.460

I have never been a fan of the writers handling the voting for anything. That being said, I'm not sure that giving the players the votes cures anything. There are no statistical guidelines for this kind of vote, and whenever you add the human element to anything you will have flaws.

Bailey was obviously the deserving winner of this honor, and I'm not sure anybody ever remembers the runner up for ROY. You either win the award or you don't.

Take a look at the stats above. Do you see anything wrong with the way the vote went?



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Comments (5)add
Bill@TDS
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written by Bill@TDS , November 18, 2009
The flaw is not that Andrus finished ahead of Beckham, but that Andrus didn't win. De Luca's article is insane, especially where he asserts that it "wasn't about defense" based on the fact that both Andrus and Beckham made a lot of errors. The fact is, Beckham was a bad 3B and Andrus was the best defensive SS in the league. I would've voted Andrus #1 and Beckham at about #6.

Also, and I'm coming across a very similar thing with the Cy Young voting -- what's the logic in saying that the right guy won, but another guy deserved more first-place votes? Aren't you basically saying "A deserved to win, but B deserved to have more voters mistakenly think that HE deserved to win"? That makes no sense to me at all.
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written by wik13 , November 18, 2009
I thought that Bailey should win too, but Gordo should have been second. He was certainly more impactful as a position player than Elvis Andrus. Are you kidding me? Look at the OBP, AVG & Slugging.

I suppose they throw defense into the mix, but some leway should be given to a player that is forced to switch positions so they can get his bat in the lineup.
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written by wik13 , November 18, 2009
Oh, and the writers ARE retarded. Just look at the HOF voting.
Bill@TDS
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written by Bill@TDS , November 18, 2009
"I suppose they throw defense in the mix" just doesn't cover it. A run saved is just as important as a run scored, and shortstop is a more important position than third base. Andrus' excellent defense at the more important position, and the fact that he played all year while Beckham missed a third of it, put Andrus easily ahead. And Beckham falls behind a bunch of other guys, too. I think he's going to be great and might end up being the best player of all the rookies this year, but there's just no way he was deserving of ROY consideration.

Why would learning a new position be a point in his favor? Seems to me that if Andrus already knew how to play shortstop and saved a whole bunch of runs Beckham didn't, it doesn't really matter, for the purpose of determining who the best rookie was, WHY Beckham didn't.
rexjaybels
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written by Rex Jaybels , November 18, 2009
I have no horse in this race, but as I see it Andrus must have received more votes based on his defense, or the fact that he had more time on the field, or more likely both.

From what I can see, Beckham has much better offensive numbers in far less ABs. Andrus had better speed numbers (triples and SBs) but Beckham out hit him, out slugged him and knocked in 23 more runs.

Two things came in to play here for the only two to receive votes who were not pitchers: time on the field and defense.
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